Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bf156ad12e87339c3884321ebf6a829c940e1cbb6c2f7dfe7a82a74196e673e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 28,530$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 11,690$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 745.23$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.46 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 50c | 698.67$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.33 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 59c | 684.76$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 605.47$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 11c | 560.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 39c | 427.81$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.7 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 408.66$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 64c | 384.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.43 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 376.2$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 75c | 348.62$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 71c | 300$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed No | 32c | 297.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.85 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…5cb3backed Yes | 8c | 235.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 27c | 230.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9953…9ef2backed Yes | 38c | 196.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 191.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 57c | 177.55$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 166.15$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 63c | 158.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 16c | 151.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.57 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 18c | 147.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 50c | 146.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed No | 17c | 145.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.4 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 14c | 140.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 44c | 136.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 18c | 132.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.32 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 131$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 68c | 127.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 29c | 126.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 48c | 123.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 12c | 122.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 121.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 121.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 21c | 119.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 32c | 119.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 117$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 43c | 116.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 18c | 113.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.35 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 110.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 70c | 110.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…2ebfbacked No | 76c | 105.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 69c | 104.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 63c | 102.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 31c | 101.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 70c | 100.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked No | 66c | 100.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 43c | 99.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed No | 18c | 89.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 43c | 88.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 63c | 88.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed No | 67c | 86.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked No | 24c | 82.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 63c | 79.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 38c | 78.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 78.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 43c | 76.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…02c3backed No | 46c | 73.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 41c | 72.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 70.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…bde0backed No | 21c | 70.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 23c | 68.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…0decbacked Yes | 30c | 67.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 64c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 54c | 60.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 30c | 58.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 60c | 53.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 20c | 52.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2267…c170backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 73c | 51.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…d6ffbacked Yes | 40c | 49.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 68c | 48.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 76c | 41.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 25c | 41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 53c | 40.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 29c | 39.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 39c | 39.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 63c | 39.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 76c | 37.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 68c | 36.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked No | 65c | 36.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 67c | 36.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 67c | 34.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0296…ad01backed No | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 34c | 31.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.