Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb1df1dbd34ca9154673ff80ae05b7bad94ec1e7bf9eef997295acf9d23f7474
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 10c | 538.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 55c | 398.04$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 8c | 274.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 256.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 251$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 73c | 234.1$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.04 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 223.14$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 220.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 203$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 202$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 50c | 196.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 189.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 38c | 172.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 168.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f64…452abacked No | 70c | 158$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 156.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 154.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 140.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 19c | 138.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 18c | 127.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 120.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 119.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 77c | 114.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 32c | 113.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 106.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 106.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 105.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 27c | 99.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 53c | 96.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 22c | 89.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 17c | 89.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 15c | 85.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…2e8abacked Yes | 50c | 84.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 18c | 83.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…6424backed Yes | 67c | 78.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 61c | 78.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 21c | 70.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 16c | 68.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cb…c123backed Yes | 52c | 68.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 25c | 67.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…6a56backed Yes | 18c | 64.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 63.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 56.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 79c | 51.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 28c | 46.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 39c | 44.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 68c | 43.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 48c | 40.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 37c | 39.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 41c | 38.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 34.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 33.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 53c | 31.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 75c | 28.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 72c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 16.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 78c | 16.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 78c | 13.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…18dbbacked No | 79c | 13.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 94°F or higher on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.