Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x490c7e6bdb2d062880ef34fe654a48494b57fff9efa4dccc267c701c815ac371
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 706.4$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 398.37$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 385.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 66c | 379.85$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.85 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…68b5backed Yes | 4c | 268.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 235.47$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 32c | 217.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 204.27$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 28c | 195$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 182.42$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 16c | 176.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 176.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 78c | 158.29$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 150.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 78c | 149.39$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 147.97$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 124.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 72c | 115.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 114.65$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 25c | 105$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 29c | 100.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 25c | 99.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 28c | 89.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 22c | 84.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 36c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 83.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 82.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 78.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…160bbacked No | 64c | 78.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 26c | 72.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 33c | 69.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 29c | 69.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 68c | 67.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 70c | 56.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 54.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 28c | 50.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…3268backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 46.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 42.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 77c | 38.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 36.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed No | 72c | 34.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 67c | 32.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 71c | 30.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 72c | 27.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 67c | 26.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2155backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 23.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 70c | 22.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…9267backed No | 68c | 21.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 77c | 19.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 67c | 18.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 75c | 14.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 14.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 80c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 94°F or higher on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.