Other European Leagues · resolved market
AZ vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb25170ba0b44160438baaaac2faaae339fd4fd893a62adcf1872730191f8940
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 1,374$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.16 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 79c | 1,211$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.67 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 1,182$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.53 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 71c | 633.8$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 136 | 62.5%85 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 29c | 551.14$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.31 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…b81dbacked Over | 74c | 407.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 33c | 306.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 199.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 170.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 141.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 33c | 107.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 168 | 26.2%44 W · 124 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 102.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 212 | 54.7%116 W · 96 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…e589backed Under | 30c | 80.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1ab4backed Over | 58c | 68.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 30c | 65.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 67c | 61.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 37c | 60.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 29c | 57.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…f1cdbacked Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 71c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 258 | 59.7%154 W · 104 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Over | 64c | 21.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 64c | 21.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over | 64c | 21.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…3706backed Over | 70c | 20.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef93…9f0dbacked Over | 70c | 20.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…a251backed Over | 70c | 19.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5955…f86ebacked Over | 70c | 19.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AZ vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 2.5this page
- AZ vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AZ vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5Under won
- AZ vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AZ (-1.5)AZ won
- Spread: AZ (-2.5)Fortuna Sittard won
- Spread: Fortuna Sittard (-1.5)AZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.