Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb25c64791dcc1659c1127398d3790619d9aec196907044dea0f7ca054806f0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 926.12$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 16c | 417.38$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…b441backed Yes | 32c | 313.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 251.33$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 223.58$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 178.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 167.5$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 165.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 73c | 150.45$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 76c | 136.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 116.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 115.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 108$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 107.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 101.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 29c | 101$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 100.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 93.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 91.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 73c | 81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 69c | 71.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 39c | 71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 69.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 19c | 58.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 58.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 56.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 54.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed Yes | 28c | 52.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 42c | 52.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 45.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 42.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 78c | 41.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 30c | 40.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 34.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 31.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 79c | 31.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 31.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 30.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked No | 79c | 22.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 63c | 22.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 22.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 71c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 73c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 19.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 65c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 71c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.