Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a4d2936ea7e0c020164f26873dad40f78cfe79b8ae68a3bc4988e2deaa66f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 10c | 1,736$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 29c | 1,475$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.19 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 1,252$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.66 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 72c | 594.62$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 13c | 527.49$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.51 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 17c | 481.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.46 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 399.77$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 16c | 300.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.82 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 76c | 300$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.84 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 299.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 35c | 240.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 79c | 173.9$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 157.8$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.75 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 152.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.88 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 147.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 48c | 132.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 25c | 119.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.56 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 12c | 118.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.49 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 115.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 24c | 105.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 102.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 100.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 13c | 87.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 76c | 58.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 27c | 52.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d9…d032backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 29c | 49.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 42.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 79c | 40.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 33.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 31.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 66c | 23.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.