Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39d499cc753c947fc483cb5cfa371e012f5d4b1225a26568efa042c9c3f2069d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 66c | 1,148$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.48 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 876.36$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.1 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 21c | 487.21$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 360.55$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 59c | 330.59$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.57 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 319.62$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.74 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 299.95$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…b441backed Yes | 39c | 257.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 242.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 238.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 232.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 21c | 222.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 72c | 216.57$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.93 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 175.29$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 39c | 169.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 167.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 160.38$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 157.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 76c | 142.08$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 38c | 133.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 132.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 130.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 127.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 127.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 57c | 127$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 119.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 11c | 114.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed Yes | 38c | 113.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 43c | 111.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 105.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 38c | 102.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 94.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 90.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 89.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 71c | 83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 70.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 67.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 57.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 44c | 55.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 41c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 45c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 50.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 47.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 45.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 75c | 42.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 39c | 42.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 31.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 28.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 49c | 27.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 76c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.