South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb3750086694397ddcfe1699fa292906a973b8d5dad40a6262e24ca572d5c61d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 3,088$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.53 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Under | 52c | 2,492$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.36 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 59c | 2,358$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.48 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 72c | 2,028$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.72 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692a…6a04backed Under | 66c | 1,700$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 73c | 988.95$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.02 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 48c | 847.24$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.56 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Under | 55c | 636.72$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.15 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 52c | 577.97$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.88 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 44c | 480$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.25 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 35c | 344.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.49 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 54c | 279.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.84 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…3876backed Under | 65c | 227.69$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 45c | 195$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 144.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 17c | 144.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8762…0d85backed Under | 48c | 72.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 36c | 63.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf958…31b3backed Under | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 51c | 48.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Under | 55c | 37.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 64c | 37.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 61c | 29.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…a070backed Under | 69c | 20.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…b24abacked Under | 70c | 19.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5this page
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 1.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: EC Bahia 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: EC Bahia O/U 0.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: EC Bahia O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 0.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)EC Bahia won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)EC Bahia won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.