South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf59549c09f2d87b8a9363db1064318e08ec583b5aefa54732570ca2fb9f1cf2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- EC Bahiaof EC Bahia, Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 57c | 9,838$5,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,571.15 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed EC Bahia | 66c | 3,810$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.62 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed EC Bahia | 43c | 3,474$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.36 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…21b9backed EC Bahia | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 8c | 1,548$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 23c | 1,458$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.97 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed EC Bahia | 44c | 1,045$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.24 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 31c | 1,012$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.67 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed EC Bahia | 70c | 650$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.92 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 55c | 599.97$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.98 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked EC Bahia | 45c | 338.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed EC Bahia | 45c | 285.16$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.55 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed EC Bahia | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 28c | 185.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 55c | 171.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed EC Bahia | 70c | 156.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…2763backed EC Bahia | 65c | 153.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked EC Bahia | 69c | 144.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed EC Bahia | 69c | 144$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed EC Bahia | 69c | 144$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…0163backed EC Bahia | 69c | 144$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +8.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed EC Bahia | 45c | 111.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed EC Bahia | 44c | 107.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 57c | 93.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked EC Bahia | 65c | 93.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked EC Bahia | 69c | 83.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…dc6bbacked EC Bahia | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed EC Bahia | 44c | 73.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 36c | 71.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked EC Bahia | 43c | 65.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed EC Bahia | 43c | 61.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54da…1facbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 36c | 60.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c6…f5c0backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…fb43backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 55c | 46.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b9…88d2backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489c…1a43backed EC Bahia | 70c | 30.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked EC Bahia | 70c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…8b09backed EC Bahia | 70c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed EC Bahia | 70c | 25.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 57c | 21.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)this page
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 1.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: EC Bahia 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: EC Bahia O/U 0.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: EC Bahia O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 0.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)EC Bahia won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.