Asian League · resolved market
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-07-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb4378df196c0b27e44c8f2b01035eb88fc54e080b23cb686014a190d58852db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Yes | 3c | 1,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 193 | 40.9%79 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Yes | 11c | 899.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 21c | 716.85$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.91 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 685.01$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.49 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed No | 74c | 662$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.26 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…8c57backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…6b59backed Yes | 29c | 600$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 72c | 591.02$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.93 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 9c | 580.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 8c | 457.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 407.83$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 239.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 30c | 200.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Yes | 29c | 193.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 10c | 180.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2b…df2ebacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Yes | 29c | 127.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 26c | 120.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…38d6backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 12c | 83.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 176 | 30.1%53 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 71c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Yes | 31c | 48.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…7e33backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 71c | 32.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 71c | 27.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 72c | 19.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-07-04?this page
- Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-07-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.