MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb47fd848b8b285ed4e78971997897c52e22d780c0d465f98a89760ad845cb82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 9,187$4,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,685.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 49c | 6,817$3,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,474.87 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 54c | 1,862$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.27 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 46c | 1,412$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.62 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Over | 49c | 915.41$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 479.1$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.34 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 46c | 394.13$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.3 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 340.96$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.79 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 49c | 321.61$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.02 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Over | 49c | 55.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 48c | 55.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 49c | 47.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 49c | 36.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 45c | 32.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 66c | 27.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.