TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$194,244
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,244 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x986b…12e9backed Over44c101,800$44,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,007.732250%11 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Under56c50,000$28,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,00086548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Over49c32,364$15,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,532.9751756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Under56c20,000$11,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,20098149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under33c16,251$5,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,383.4612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under56c14,754$8,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,262.24,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under53c13,370$7,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,076.422,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Under10c9,999$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.91353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f78…f679backed Under56c8,624$4,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,829.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked Under56c6,650$3,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,711.726845.6%31 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under36c4,232$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.34,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under52c3,079$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.3510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under39c3,015$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.682,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Under56c3,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6805149%25 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under34c2,779$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.7775344.1%332 W · 421 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Under56c2,411$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3505450%27 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over45c2,223$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.862,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over79c2,221$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.623,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under12c2,099$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.98,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Over44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1209748.5%47 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1201,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Over46c2,000$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.9914938.3%57 W · 92 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over44c1,995$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.966,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under56c1,820$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.21,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecee…2120backed Over44c1,581$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.982259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+28.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked Over42c1,548$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.049147.3%43 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under47c1,334$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.742,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over45c1,111$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.1189153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Over44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5609262%57 W · 35 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under52c981.56$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.415,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2445…ff62backed Under56c892.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Under55c859.97$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.985143.1%22 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb27…b180backed Under55c804.17$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.291931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-42.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Under42c783.09$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.4716947.3%80 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76e4…febcbacked Over45c666.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.679045.6%41 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over47c629$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.374,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…fea1backed Over44c622.31$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.351145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under56c600$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33640341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed Over44c525.83$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.461450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x004e…c650backed Over47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2656048.3%29 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over44c400.1$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.0625249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under54c399.99$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21629950.5%151 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb188…8be3backed Under54c374.3$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.655042%21 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under55c369.47$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.215,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Under56c353.57$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19840348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over45c316.6$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.61,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under54c309.72$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.876,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16849450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Over44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16810057%57 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under50c299.56$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5978146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Under53c281.1$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4340148.1%193 W · 208 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over47c272.56$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.788,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under51c265$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.151,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over44c236.31$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.331,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under45c229.17$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.346,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Over44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2748150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26b2…5fb4backed Over45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+114.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under51c214$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.141,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under55c199.97$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9870744.7%316 W · 391 L-22.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x106b…4e8bbacked Over45c195.56$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under52c189.52$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.281,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under55c179.45$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.71,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Under56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037256.5%210 W · 162 L+1.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45dd…7b56backed Over44c175.86$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8616242.6%69 W · 93 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Over44c170.45$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4548651%248 W · 238 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under55c158.03$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.921,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under56c146.33$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.851,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14de…414ebacked Under41c145.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6016056.9%91 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over46c133.91$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.393,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed Over46c131.07$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.076855.9%38 W · 30 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Over45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.116360.3%38 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1121944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Over44c108$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4849649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d28…ad43backed Over47c105.31$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.815545.5%25 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2573…2726backed Under57c105.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6023051.7%119 W · 111 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over50c104.54$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5539344.3%174 W · 219 L-22.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fb0…20b4backed Under10c102.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.296946.4%32 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over45c99.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9961948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eea…f37cbacked Under56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024150.2%121 W · 120 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under55c86.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.82,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over45c86.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.65,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over48c85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.21,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Under59c82.34$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.237143.9%163 W · 208 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0514…def7backed Over47c78.72$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.725844.8%26 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa804…bdc1backed Over44c77$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.128446.4%39 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fcb…207cbacked Under25c68.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.084344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec17…44bcbacked Under52c67.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fee…3d67backed Over46c64.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.045947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Under37c57.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3722848.2%110 W · 118 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5fd…b476backed Under53c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011342.5%48 W · 65 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x87b8…9c13backed Over45c55.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.564753.2%25 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under39c54.66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2732550.5%164 W · 161 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa434…e508backed Over45c53.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.331060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb84…fc66backed Under51c53.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Under57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3aa7…303dbacked Under38c50.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.35563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Under54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2755953.1%297 W · 262 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bed…2159backed Under56c49.82$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Over46c48.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0684140.2%338 W · 503 L-3.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.