MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b744864e301d96f904822e277e9aa050d1fc7d379047ab6a1bd9e51811f6dde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed No | 62c | 5,000$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 981 | 49.9%490 W · 491 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed No | 62c | 4,995$3,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,089.8 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 38c | 4,099$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,541.2 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Yes | 38c | 3,498$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.47 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 41c | 1,538$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.35 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Yes | 38c | 1,004$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.48 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed No | 64c | 564.98$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.1 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0625…96babacked Yes | 36c | 498.15$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.81 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed No | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 38c | 392$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.04 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 36c | 303.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 55c | 269.35$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.94 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 54c | 262.16$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…bfc2backed No | 64c | 257.81$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.05 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 41c | 253$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.27 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…bd04backed No | 62c | 201.19$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 43c | 149.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…047ebacked No | 60c | 113.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 42c | 110.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes | 38c | 96.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 53c | 71.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…97f4backed No | 55c | 65.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…7b9dbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 289 | 51.9%150 W · 139 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 38c | 52.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 43c | 51.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 52c | 48.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 53c | 44.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed No | 57c | 43.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Yes | 38c | 33.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…f826backed No | 60c | 28.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 59c | 22.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Yes | 57c | 20.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked No | 62c | 19.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubsthis page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.