TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,446
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,479

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,446 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd52…df69backed Arizona Diamondbacks38c10,139$3,853 inWon+$6,286.221353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs72c6,606$4,756 inLost-$4,756.353,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2f…3531backed Chicago Cubs72c6,262$4,509 inLost-$4,508.671752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona Diamondbacks38c3,338$1,268 inWon+$2,069.431,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Chicago Cubs72c1,014$730 inLost-$7301,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Arizona Diamondbacks38c525$200 inWon+$325.55756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Chicago Cubs72c382.33$275 inLost-$275.2870154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Arizona Diamondbacks42c171.61$71 inWon+$100.382,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Arizona Diamondbacks38c159.71$61 inWon+$99.0240148.1%193 W · 208 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Chicago Cubs72c65.08$47 inLost-$46.8638352.2%200 W · 183 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Chicago Cubs72c40$29 inLost-$28.827354.6%149 W · 124 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks38c39.47$15 inWon+$24.4718444%81 W · 103 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Arizona Diamondbacks75c36$27 inWon+$929047.6%138 W · 152 L-11.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Chicago Cubs72c30$22 inLost-$21.616947.3%80 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks78c17.89$14 inWon+$3.952,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks77c15$12 inWon+$3.411,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.