TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,478 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…f328backed Chicago Cubs40c7,249$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.6319239.1%75 W · 117 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs74c6,845$5,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,058.710,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c5,012$3,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.81,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Arizona Diamondbacks64c3,432$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.422,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c2,067$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.021,53848.6%747 W · 791 L-5.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Chicago Cubs38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76014924.2%36 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c1,987$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.3365749.2%323 W · 334 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs39c1,894$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.654,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks25c1,844$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.538,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Chicago Cubs71c1,545$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.7425266.3%167 W · 85 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks39c1,296$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.342,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs49c1,188$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.8612,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c1,160$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.031,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c1,100$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4406746.3%31 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Chicago Cubs38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38024250.8%123 W · 119 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Chicago Cubs22c783.33$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.336936.2%25 W · 44 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Chicago Cubs39c782.62$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.2216543%71 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Chicago Cubs39c769.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30029331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c508.03$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.131,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c402.42$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.946,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Chicago Cubs65c379.09$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24712449.2%61 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6672…9ea3backed Chicago Cubs40c375$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c367.99$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.522,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Arizona Diamondbacks55c341.69$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1440148.1%193 W · 208 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45dd…7b56backed Chicago Cubs38c271.05$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10316242.6%69 W · 93 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Arizona Diamondbacks62c260.79$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.167444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10056946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Chicago Cubs40c251.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1259150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks50c234.22$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.688,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Chicago Cubs38c209.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.849649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e1…7e55backed Arizona Diamondbacks70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604355.8%24 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Chicago Cubs38c192.11$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7347849%234 W · 244 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c192.06$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.91,84550.7%936 W · 909 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d28…ad43backed Chicago Cubs52c190.66$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.785545.5%25 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks48c183.3$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.246,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs65c158.68$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.13,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c151.61$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.617758.4%45 W · 32 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.51,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Chicago Cubs39c140$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.656440.4%228 W · 336 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Arizona Diamondbacks29c123.68$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2584122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5d00…7507backed Chicago Cubs39c119.08$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.449642.7%41 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Cubs73c113.7$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.261,72850.4%871 W · 857 L+57.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Chicago Cubs38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4079943.2%345 W · 454 L-2.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Chicago Cubs40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Chicago Cubs37c99.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9937357.4%214 W · 159 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Arizona Diamondbacks41c98.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2439344.3%174 W · 219 L-22.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0857…5bedbacked Arizona Diamondbacks63c95.24$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.247447.3%35 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Arizona Diamondbacks27c87.32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9619442.3%82 W · 112 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs48c84.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.785,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks43c81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.244,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x473e…c0f6backed Arizona Diamondbacks25c73.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.143033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c71.25$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.152,99547.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L+12.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs38c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.61,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Arizona Diamondbacks53c67.92$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.922,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked Chicago Cubs38c65.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515045.3%68 W · 82 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks66c61.37$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.141,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Chicago Cubs38c60.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8425249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef2…fdb6backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.91323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.32per pick55cpaid-60.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7307…b257backed Chicago Cubs39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208158%47 W · 34 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Arizona Diamondbacks53c50.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.942,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs50c50.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.996,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks62c49.92$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1214353.1%76 W · 67 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Chicago Cubs38c49.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.873650.7%373 W · 363 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5410…dcc7backed Chicago Cubs38c49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6212128.1%34 W · 87 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Arizona Diamondbacks43c37.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.371,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks77c36.72$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.62,54645.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L-74.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks78c36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.924,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Chicago Cubs54c35.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3327354.6%149 W · 124 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3704…5487backed Arizona Diamondbacks64c33.63$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0415349.7%76 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.541,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks62c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1621353.5%114 W · 99 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Chicago Cubs39c27.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8484840.2%341 W · 507 L-3.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Chicago Cubs47c23.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1529047.6%138 W · 152 L-11.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Chicago Cubs62c22.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.011,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2827…64f6backed Chicago Cubs52c21.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0820764.7%134 W · 73 L+21.2wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c21.14$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.032254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c19.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5130652%159 W · 147 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fce…6476backed Arizona Diamondbacks63c19.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.093562.9%22 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7198…4213backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.464658.7%27 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.