La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb4a11143e157ac1e99de59aeb86ff0fd902242138afca03ab5441e182d619b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 9c | 11,696$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.91 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 10c | 4,919$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.42 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 4c | 1,800$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 11c | 881.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…4cb8backed Under | 10c | 471.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…5924backed Under | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 11c | 352.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Under | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 6c | 213.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -8.0wins | -0.24per pick | 29cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda62…3c96backed Under | 12c | 211.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 7c | 198.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…4662backed Over | 79c | 153.57$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…bee7backed Under | 11c | 126.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 9c | 116.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 11c | 99.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 11c | 99.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…f53bbacked Under | 12c | 97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf564…38a3backed Under | 12c | 88.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a2…a2d1backed Under | 12c | 87.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…095dbacked Under | 12c | 87.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…f150backed Under | 12c | 87.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f7…4933backed Under | 12c | 87.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ea…c1edbacked Under | 12c | 87.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6c…cd29backed Under | 12c | 87.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3848…7904backed Under | 12c | 87.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3527…71a6backed Under | 12c | 87.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f9…b8b1backed Under | 12c | 87.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165c…6c0dbacked Under | 12c | 87.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0439…39d7backed Under | 12c | 87.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…5870backed Under | 12c | 85.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…4d5bbacked Under | 12c | 84.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…c890backed Under | 12c | 84.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d9…e920backed Under | 12c | 84.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31b…a3edbacked Under | 12c | 84.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)FC Barcelona won
- Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5Under won
- Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.