MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb5503fe01de740bef76711e942a61835886604513e4ddf57a472ac3cdb6cbd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Houston Astros | 58c | 16,874$9,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,099.62 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 11,262$4,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,707.48 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 2,600$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 2,273$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 2,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Houston Astros | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Houston Astros | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 800$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Houston Astros | 56c | 597.93$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.09 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 587.8$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.28 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 586$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.1 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 449.98$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.99 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 445.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 416.27$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.83 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 408.88$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.01 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 392.86$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.86 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Houston Astros | 56c | 392.86$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.86 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 380.44$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.22 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 301.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.61 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 199.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Houston Astros | 56c | 102$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 89.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Houston Astros | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Houston Astros | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Houston Astros | 54c | 43.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 42.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 36.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.