Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb597c8dae42195af6d339916d2a99fab482bb7e112a31e78008ed1cf5edf9c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,294 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 1,483$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 1,347$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,048$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 726.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 7c | 577.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 3c | 564.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e7…84f9backed Yes | 6c | 495.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d19…296ebacked Yes | 6c | 494.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 4c | 420.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 5c | 409.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 4c | 359.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…15aabacked Yes | 3c | 333.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 316.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Yes | 7c | 312.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 266.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b2…71bbbacked Yes | 13c | 229.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 12c | 207.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 12c | 198.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 8c | 171$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 12c | 145$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…8776backed Yes | 12c | 130.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…40b3backed Yes | 8c | 128.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 17c | 105.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 100.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…e95cbacked Yes | 13c | 100.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 13c | 97.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 79c | 95.53$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…c6b9backed Yes | 24c | 92.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 25c | 87.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…28e6backed Yes | 19c | 73.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 78c | 64.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 23c | 62.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 40.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.