Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x580b904495dc7af3cbcfad2d77ca3d77eac1f876488fb1a7c84d6d3a453f64a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,481 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 2,004$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 9c | 1,920$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.04 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 9c | 1,919$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.53 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,910$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,625$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…c6b9backed Yes | 12c | 1,617$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 2c | 887.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 791.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 716.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 7c | 656.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 541.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 10c | 344.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…2caebacked Yes | 6c | 330.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 5c | 307.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 13c | 301.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 10c | 299.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 5c | 285$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 5c | 265.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc4…3a52backed Yes | 11c | 249.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 241.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b2…71bbbacked Yes | 9c | 226.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e7…84f9backed Yes | 9c | 209.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…1558backed Yes | 11c | 183.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 161.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 7c | 145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 12c | 136.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 118.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055d…6777backed Yes | 10c | 107.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…4847backed Yes | 14c | 105.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…0efebacked Yes | 14c | 93.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 14c | 79.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.