Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ec84828ddbac2876d73362a9cccb8d5bd563d5c97bc2746fb1799a3af29f10f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,567 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 47c | 3,347$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.49 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,192$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 889.12$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.47 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 19c | 646.56$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 631.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 17c | 586.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 8c | 550.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 29c | 502.6$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 472.83$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.07 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 411$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.91 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 406.81$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 32c | 399.65$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.83 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 3c | 393.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 17c | 383$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 356.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 77c | 341.69$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 31c | 334.43$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 22c | 332.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 68c | 322.13$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 48c | 317.35$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.54 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 303.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 7c | 297.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 226.97$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 216.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 210.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 203.32$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 197.47$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 179.72$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 15c | 177.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 176$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 175.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 175.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked No | 67c | 174.28$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 33c | 155.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 68c | 151.77$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 145$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 139$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…957ebacked Yes | 31c | 137.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 42c | 131.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 31c | 125.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 34c | 125.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 119.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 16c | 118.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 25c | 117.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 116.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c5…681ebacked Yes | 29c | 115$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 78c | 109.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 48c | 108.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 69c | 108.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 104.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…40b3backed Yes | 29c | 103.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 101.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 27c | 100.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 98.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 54c | 91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 24c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 48c | 83.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 35c | 82.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 80.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 80.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45ca…d07bbacked Yes | 30c | 78.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 35c | 77.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 74.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 50c | 73.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…f66ebacked Yes | 30c | 67.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…d691backed Yes | 31c | 67.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 30c | 66.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 20c | 64.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 29c | 61.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 59.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 69c | 58.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed No | 71c | 57.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 24c | 56.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 37c | 54.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 42c | 53.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked Yes | 37c | 52.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…d9d8backed Yes | 34c | 52.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 76c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked No | 63c | 51.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35c…73d7backed Yes | 29c | 51.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 50.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 22c | 50.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf398…1b15backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 55c | 49.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.