Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x348f58b2bd8d2fd34a659a929379cce85b6fd15f027dc067acc6511b4c8f1806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,992 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 2c | 5,846$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,010$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,432$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.29 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 3c | 1,095$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,006$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 60c | 979.48$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.21 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 1c | 942.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 45c | 844.39$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.33 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 797.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 693.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 654.67$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…8776backed Yes | 7c | 651.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d34…23b5backed Yes | 39c | 613.8$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 32c | 611.36$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.66 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 5c | 599.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…ece3backed Yes | 51c | 554.32$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed No | 27c | 484.84$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.87 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 10c | 431.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…df79backed Yes | 7c | 401.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 377.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 6c | 363.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 50c | 306.19$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.53 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 55c | 298.49$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked Yes | 67c | 296.24$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.06 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 50c | 295.03$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 55c | 294.38$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.66 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 6c | 288.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 44c | 283.94$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.4 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 272.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 35c | 271.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.44 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 43c | 253.09$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.14 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 23c | 247.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 9c | 242.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 6c | 236.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 60c | 215.48$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 7c | 208.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 61c | 201.85$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 65c | 201.51$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 42c | 200.11$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…b3cfbacked Yes | 7c | 198.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 12c | 197.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 6c | 196.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 40c | 196.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 192.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 192.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 53c | 185.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 49c | 178$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 17c | 177.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 35c | 172$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 69c | 167.62$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 60c | 166.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 7c | 160.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 49c | 159.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 70c | 150.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 8c | 145$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 56c | 143.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…9047backed Yes | 33c | 143.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 139$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 49c | 134.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…e7b8backed Yes | 65c | 125.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 42c | 123.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 48c | 103.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 40c | 96.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 91.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 48c | 90.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 78c | 89.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 52c | 87.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed No | 59c | 84.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 49c | 80.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 50c | 79.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed No | 50c | 78.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7156…cdf3backed Yes | 61c | 76.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 73c | 72.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 78c | 68.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 32c | 68.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 49c | 66.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…4274backed Yes | 54c | 66.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…4300backed Yes | 73c | 66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 44c | 65.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 49c | 63.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 49c | 57.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 45c | 56.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622a…cc4cbacked Yes | 58c | 53.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e50…7a7fbacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…5dc2backed Yes | 46c | 50.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 37c | 48.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.