Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44f403ac58e4aaab4f17e957e1dc50d6b0014ab600c378c6d0bf954ebf94921e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,210 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 1c | 3,204$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,045$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.28 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed No | 74c | 1,513$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.81 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…a410backed No | 3c | 1,232$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 71c | 1,105$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.06 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 22c | 829$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.75 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 16c | 791.93$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 777.08$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 626.03$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.56 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 16c | 587.98$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.33 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 563.45$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.37 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 442.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 22c | 439.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.19 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 12c | 434.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.37 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 24c | 426.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.89 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 16c | 405.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.53 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 25c | 392.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.28 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6076…26b4backed Yes | 36c | 342.97$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 46c | 341.21$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.47 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 314.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 28c | 277.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.64 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 20c | 261.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.26 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 7c | 255.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 249.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 14c | 244.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.63 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 11c | 243.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.56 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 219.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.82 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 31c | 209.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.74 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 207.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.03 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 23c | 205.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.94 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 25c | 200.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.98 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 196.86$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 23c | 192.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.59 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 8c | 187.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.49 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 180.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 30c | 160.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 159.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc075…cdd2backed Yes | 7c | 159.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 15c | 159.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.67 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 152.42$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 25c | 150.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.83 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 73c | 148.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 68c | 146.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 145$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 139$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 41c | 138.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 29c | 135.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 40c | 135$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 35c | 132.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 18c | 132.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.27 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 129.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.07 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 32c | 119.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 22c | 118.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7156…cdf3backed Yes | 38c | 115.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2d…0a11backed Yes | 20c | 112$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 39c | 101.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 98.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 14c | 93.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…f66ebacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 18c | 87.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 23c | 86.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 58c | 86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 71c | 84.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ca…d07bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 23c | 75.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 79c | 74.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 73.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 41c | 72.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 72c | 67.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622a…cc4cbacked No | 27c | 66.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ee…a816backed No | 75c | 66.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 40c | 65.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…e44abacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…877cbacked Yes | 38c | 55.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 37c | 54.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 34c | 54.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de1…48fcbacked Yes | 27c | 53.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 26c | 53.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 79c | 52.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 50.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9112backed No | 80c | 49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 31c | 48.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 30c | 43.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 29c | 41.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.