MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb657a21f9a49d983a01ceb11e47d66b8de979edd7b00c529c347d2efbff0043
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 10,197$5,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,063.99 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 6,502$3,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,194.9 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 3,760$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.5 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a024backed Under | 1c | 2,180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 516.65$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.12 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Over | 53c | 470.75$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 440.01$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.13 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 56c | 425.46$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.51 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 36c | 207.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.85 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 61c | 129.41$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 38c | 104.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 30c | 103.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 36c | 86.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 45c | 80.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 69c | 74.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 31c | 69.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 35c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 66c | 52.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 38.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 55c | 35.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 67c | 29.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 71c | 28.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 66c | 22.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 69c | 18.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.