Music · resolved market
Kanye drops Vultures 2 by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb99e549d16f4b11d492030386c6d743fa0b3f43810d39ea191836eaae93839c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 1,585$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,248$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.05 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 25c | 656$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 77c | 326.99$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 72c | 265$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +886.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…6a12backed Yes | 27c | 84.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 26c | 54.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0871…dfdbbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.