Token Launches · resolved market
Trump family comments on $DJT by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb9b8515b1fc0a011d3fdb1acba1a062f3c40357ce5aad57fcb2d4df8abdcfb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ad…ae4bbacked Yes | 9c | 16,642$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 11c | 13,991$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…50e4backed Yes | 14c | 7,515$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…07c8backed Yes | 19c | 5,944$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 3,995$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.2 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b1…ae7ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 5c | 922.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 9c | 852.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 2c | 675$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 4c | 636.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 3c | 555$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 80c | 400$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…b637backed Yes | 15c | 218.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…8abebacked Yes | 18c | 205$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…3585backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 19c | 149$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 79c | 119.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…56cdbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.