South American Leagues · resolved market
Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeba42c76c20ecf43ad82acd98e8e781626e1b3e92b5c47666cbdfc08836c82b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 12,383$2,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,131.43 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 49c | 8,594$4,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,235.49 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 7c | 3,398$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,160.63 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Over | 70c | 2,860$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.34 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…1a0fbacked Under | 13c | 2,358$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.12 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 48c | 2,158$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.31 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…c93abacked Under | 2c | 1,843$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Under | 8c | 1,750$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.32 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 5c | 1,042$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 17.8%21 W · 97 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 667.44$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.38 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 21c | 273.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 12c | 236.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.89 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 80c | 210.41$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.33 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Over | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 14c | 199.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.93 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 29c | 182.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 6c | 177.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 76c | 166.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…89c6backed Under | 78c | 157.09$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 147.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Over | 20c | 132.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.66 | 156 | 25.6%40 W · 116 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…bf2ebacked Under | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…92c1backed Under | 79c | 114.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 18c | 99.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Over | 20c | 57.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 126 | 62.7%79 W · 47 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 21c | 53.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…83a8backed Under | 80c | 25.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 80c | 13.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5this page
- Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 0.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 5.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras: SE Palmeiras O/U 0.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras: SE Palmeiras O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. SE Palmeiras: SE Palmeiras O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Fluminense FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.