Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or below on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebab56d24573ed2d13a96e426146ae0d9edd09bc462adc8327940392d20fd460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 1,740$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 17c | 1,323$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.22 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 635.58$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 7c | 512.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…e55dbacked No | 9c | 507.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +518.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 13c | 495.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 31c | 335.32$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.12 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 297.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 68c | 281$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.07 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked No | 7c | 218.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 42c | 215$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 213.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 211.51$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.57 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 205$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 51c | 188.39$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 23c | 183.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 72c | 182.94$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.17 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 15c | 182.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 40c | 169.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 48c | 162.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed No | 12c | 160.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 76c | 131.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 13c | 128.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 19c | 103.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 102.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 52c | 96.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 28c | 89.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 89.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked Yes | 41c | 80.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 24c | 63.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked Yes | 80c | 62.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 38c | 57.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 23c | 57.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 74c | 54.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 27c | 52.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 71c | 46.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 43c | 44.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 35.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 73c | 31.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 46c | 26.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 74c | 25.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…7055backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 61c | 21.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 80c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or below on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.