NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Stars: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebbb1803133227b94fcbe4f8814a671889ddc473f13282c634d6d1d7740bee18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2bef…3afdbacked Under | 39c | 645.15$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.71 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…eaa8backed Over | 60c | 240.96$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…26a1backed Over | 59c | 150.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…553dbacked Over | 63c | 145.16$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…f94abacked Over | 80c | 145$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 76c | 136.62$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8587…acaabacked Under | 22c | 63.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 75c | 44.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…258dbacked Over | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x333f…4da2backed Over | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 77c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…6ce0backed Over | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Stars: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Wild won
- Wild vs. StarsStars won
- Wild vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Over won
- Wild vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Over won
- Wild vs. Stars: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.