Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon: Samsonova vs. Maneiro (W)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec042855388cca34f984db16bc04b0659c3f285d562c6ca4f30cfcbd60e3288e

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Samsonovaof Samsonova, Maneiro
Resolved: Jul 7, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $70,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $90,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,573 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf520…0637backed Maneiro	20c	12,390$2,491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,491.44	280	43.2%121 W · 159 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Maneiro	19c	10,000$1,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,900	122	31.1%38 W · 84 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5976…91f9backed Maneiro	16c	7,338$1,144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,144.31	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Maneiro	24c	1,342$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.57	1,090	35.9%391 W · 699 L	+16.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Samsonova	79c	1,295$1,023 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272	60	70%42 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	70cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Maneiro	20c	1,215$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.56	321	41.1%132 W · 189 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Maneiro	19c	1,053$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.07	627	42.4%266 W · 361 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Maneiro	34c	800$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	819	38.9%319 W · 500 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Maneiro	18c	629.54$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.32	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-3.9wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Samsonova	78c	601.16$469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.25	391	44.2%173 W · 218 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Maneiro	19c	566.41$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.38	251	34.3%86 W · 165 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e78…52b5backed Maneiro	24c	510.37$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Samsonova	79c	499.98$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	316	50%158 W · 158 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Maneiro	21c	471.81$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	480	43.3%208 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Maneiro	22c	454.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	639	42.4%271 W · 368 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Samsonova	70c	400$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	1,446	48.8%706 W · 740 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fbc…a89cbacked Maneiro	18c	400$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Samsonova	67c	358.55$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.32	295	53.2%157 W · 138 L	-17.1wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6187…1746backed Samsonova	79c	350$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21b8…66b8backed Samsonova	80c	316.25$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.25	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Maneiro	21c	299.99$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	1,212	33.1%401 W · 811 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Maneiro	16c	265.71$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.56	53	32.1%17 W · 36 L	-4.7wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Maneiro	22c	265$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.1	898	50.1%450 W · 448 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Maneiro	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	476	39.1%186 W · 290 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Samsonova	80c	243.75$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.75	629	52.1%328 W · 301 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Maneiro	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-4.2wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Maneiro	21c	200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	204	31.4%64 W · 140 L	+7.7wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Maneiro	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	253	30%76 W · 177 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac6…f6eabacked Samsonova	67c	171.72$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.79	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab6…cfecbacked Maneiro	21c	166.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	129	27.1%35 W · 94 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Maneiro	20c	149.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	459	9.6%44 W · 415 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Samsonova	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Samsonova	78c	123.55$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.18	132	45.5%60 W · 72 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc615…9f26backed Maneiro	21c	119.05$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	58	19%11 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Maneiro	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	159	57.2%91 W · 68 L	+15.8wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7753…73cebacked Maneiro	38c	89.52$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.39	236	70.8%167 W · 69 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	70cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Maneiro	18c	88.89$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	-6.6wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd22c…53e9backed Maneiro	38c	85.84$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.62	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Samsonova	79c	75$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.75	421	41.8%176 W · 245 L	-12.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa7…d927backed Maneiro	20c	75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Maneiro	44c	68.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2,335	46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L	+55.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c06backed Samsonova	80c	62.71$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.71	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa060…9719backed Samsonova	80c	61.25$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+44%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…6faebacked Maneiro	19c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x198b…9973backed Samsonova	79c	59.7$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.54	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Samsonova	79c	51$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.71	79	43%34 W · 45 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Maneiro	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	439	48.5%213 W · 226 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Samsonova	79c	47$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.87	127	37%47 W · 80 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10f4…3b7ebacked Maneiro	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	130	44.6%58 W · 72 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4dd…6a9ebacked Samsonova	79c	22.22$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.67	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.15per pick	44cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5599…98c3backed Samsonova	79c	18.8$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.95	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Wimbledon: Samsonova vs. Maneiro (W)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market