TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

San Jose Earthquakes vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$233,768
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,768 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb22…6478backed Under45c209,241$93,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115,247.5915647.4%74 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over55c52,720$29,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,160.465250%26 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x036c…178dbacked Over55c42,059$23,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,132.462871.4%20 W · 8 L+6.0wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+46.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over55c30,000$16,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,3758845.5%40 W · 48 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Over54c29,306$15,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,825.31752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over56c21,290$11,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,964.883,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over55c8,400$4,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,62015341.2%63 W · 90 L-14.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over55c4,374$2,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,394.9725149%123 W · 128 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2001338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over55c3,848$2,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,116.43253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over57c3,806$2,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.8612451.6%64 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Over55c3,636$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Over61c2,763$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,685.631233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-30.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Over54c2,487$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.862941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over50c2,338$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.1577751.7%402 W · 375 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Over55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1005147.1%24 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over56c1,714$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960110%0 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x126b…298fbacked Over55c1,327$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Under44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+37.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over52c900.23$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.424551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over55c600$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3306155.7%34 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over61c543.67$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.649151.6%47 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Under44c474.62$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.413347.4%63 W · 70 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Under43c465.75$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.22133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over58c440$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.2237138.8%144 W · 227 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over59c388$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.6820648.5%100 W · 106 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under40c361.08$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.652937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Over29c339.65$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972458.3%14 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+74.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4157…04f9backed Over57c284.21$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1621136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-37%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over55c272.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1ae…a9dcbacked Under80c266.59$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.321181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Under43c231.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.081526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-54.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Over55c226$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.31050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Under46c210.59$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.743426.5%9 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-43.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Under74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Over57c193.93$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.362462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Under40c186.81$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.095131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Over60c180$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8624351.4%125 W · 118 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Over57c179.97$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.598446.4%39 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb5…4ba6backed Over57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc42…b12cbacked Over57c175.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda1d…6192backed Over57c140.35$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3de…fe0ebacked Over56c124.66$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.81742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick62cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec68…6d0dbacked Over28c122$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over57c110.53$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634348.8%21 W · 22 L-6.6wins-0.15per pick64cpaid-23.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under46c110$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.728851.4%148 W · 140 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over54c105.44$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.74259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Over56c102.1$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.052766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588739.1%34 W · 53 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Over53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010249%50 W · 52 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over56c89.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4187154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Over59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508465.5%55 W · 29 L+16.4wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+60.6%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over24c83.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9996756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over56c80.51$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.385251.9%27 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Over61c72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.928836.4%32 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Under40c70$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over52c67.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353658.3%21 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Over57c65.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.452931%9 W · 20 L-7.7wins-0.26per pick57cpaid-46.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfb29…0b62backed Under43c61.86$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f2c…9d16backed Over50c52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Over56c51.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.242142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0316…2bfdbacked Over61c50.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c16…c36fbacked Over40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5046…7676backed Over57c47.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.941275%9 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+43.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over46c46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1618967.2%127 W · 62 L+21.1wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfa03…45e9backed Over61c41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.01785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick64cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8603…6a45backed Over40c38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over61c37.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.665850%29 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eae…c47bbacked Under41c36.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b35…768ebacked Over56c35.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over64c35.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8613950.4%70 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa4…7f52backed Under43c32.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Over56c32.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over68c29.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Over56c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.681241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f3a…134fbacked Over58c27.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Under46c23.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.893148.4%15 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Over61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.28942.7%38 W · 51 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Over61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Over61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf815…a557backed Over56c19.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf158…aa4bbacked Under78c12.85$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.831957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.