Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Frankfurt beat Ferencvaros?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec0cab826fd3c44f6345aa80f3464c0b1fa5d0abbe08eaa378f33d7e39ff179e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 41c | 8,103$3,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,281.74 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 74c | 4,927$3,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.35 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 61c | 3,085$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.78 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 34c | 1,052$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.61 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ec…f068backed No | 32c | 967.07$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 65c | 744.21$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.68 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 68c | 445.6$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.59 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc85…6062backed Yes | 77c | 415$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 34c | 301.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 64c | 258.66$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.19 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 34c | 233.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 65c | 230$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf113…2d48backed Yes | 66c | 211.68$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 68c | 209.31$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 63c | 200.01$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 67c | 187.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bb…ad38backed Yes | 65c | 174.91$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…f3fbbacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe815…93f4backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…a9c2backed Yes | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3432…a977backed Yes | 68c | 126.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Yes | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Yes | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6909…36b5backed Yes | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 31c | 86.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 69c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 121 | 66.9%81 W · 40 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 68c | 53.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…d20ebacked Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 69c | 45.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a3…4b56backed No | 36c | 39.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…51f9backed Yes | 64c | 39.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…cec6backed Yes | 61c | 37.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cae…931cbacked Yes | 61c | 36.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20a…2d89backed No | 39c | 35.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be3…fb8cbacked Yes | 68c | 34.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe847…f8bdbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…05a0backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…cd76backed No | 39c | 32.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6b…883cbacked No | 35c | 32.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0772…e70ebacked Yes | 69c | 31.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…56f3backed No | 39c | 31.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…f51bbacked Yes | 67c | 31.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…cf32backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1179…710bbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6176…79e9backed Yes | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0917backed Yes | 65c | 28.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b8…b0fdbacked No | 39c | 27.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…addabacked Yes | 66c | 27.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…df5ebacked Yes | 58c | 27.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b3…98b9backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ec…2fc6backed Yes | 68c | 25.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6776…8ca2backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e5…b199backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…16bebacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344a…ba39backed Yes | 58c | 21.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fa…1bfabacked Yes | 61c | 20.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf698…c74bbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e40…63cabacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…2ba1backed Yes | 61c | 19.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72d…f3cdbacked Yes | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…7007backed Yes | 68c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frankfurt beat Ferencvaros?this page
- Will Ferencvaros beat Frankfurt?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.