Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec32bc686674f05abd87c6e0f220fe6b1fe1931a2fcd166af24e843c0144d1cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 54c | 5,878$3,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,691.01 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 76c | 2,856$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170.29 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 14c | 969.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.11 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 633.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 47c | 577.81$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…ed32backed Yes | 2c | 566.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +581.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 78c | 521.92$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.62 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 40c | 505.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 80c | 409$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.2 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 79c | 387.8$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.07 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 56c | 369$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.62 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 363.11$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 25c | 276.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.3 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 41c | 256.73$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 20c | 200$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.5 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 17c | 190$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 188.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 55c | 181.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 19c | 181.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.45 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 49c | 156.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 32c | 144$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 64c | 142.83$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 17c | 137.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.37 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 68c | 123.23$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 117.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 107.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 29c | 96.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 64c | 92.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 40c | 88.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 66c | 74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 77c | 68.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…da7cbacked No | 25c | 62.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 31c | 62.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 32c | 61.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 43c | 59.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 57.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 25c | 54.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 48.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 39.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed No | 64c | 32.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 45c | 32.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 78c | 32.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 31.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 47c | 30.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 36c | 30.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 79c | 27.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 27.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Yes | 61c | 22.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…0b67backed No | 71c | 20.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 76c | 19.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 78c | 19.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 79c | 17.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 67c | 16.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.