Mls · resolved market
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec3a40139e4a917b183bed48f93aa81773698e8709ef774802404f06b4fe5873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 20c | 3,576$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.37 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 13c | 2,147$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.47 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 1,576$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.87 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 19c | 748.23$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 25c | 566$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 80c | 480$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 19c | 462.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 80c | 426.04$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 20c | 412.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 20c | 401.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 78c | 371.36$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 79c | 299.98$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 22c | 299.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 19c | 291$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 7c | 196$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 190.02$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 20c | 102.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4504…e61cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcd…77e8backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 80c | 71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…1aeabacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61eb…6a61backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 76c | 34.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 79c | 22.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.