Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38674696c513c10654f1d35d6ef3f69c41e24d2336fe3bf87a859bb21d8ea456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 4,900$3,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.83 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 4,122$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.12 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 3,359$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.03 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 26c | 2,770$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.5 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 75c | 1,442$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.47 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 75c | 1,100$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 24c | 1,033$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 19c | 805.26$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.52 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 4c | 511.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 74c | 439.99$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Yes | 22c | 436.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 415.05$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 26c | 409.85$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 72c | 408$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.12 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 74c | 338$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 74c | 323$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 26c | 318$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 77c | 307.62$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 79c | 296.93$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 181.61$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 23c | 175.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 73c | 142.59$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Yes | 27c | 138.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed No | 75c | 130.87$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Yes | 25c | 106.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 15c | 105.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…b823backed Yes | 26c | 95.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Yes | 25c | 86.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 26c | 75.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 26c | 74.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 25c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…5c8ebacked Yes | 27c | 60.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…da09backed Yes | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…1f3ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Yes | 31c | 36.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed No | 76c | 24.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 24.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 23.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 76c | 16.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 71c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.