CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec55daa36351a475730fef8d7a3ee04168f1789785e13abbb87f82783b976356
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fire Flux Esportsof Fire Flux Esports, Arch
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c7b…491cbacked Arch | 1c | 819.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Fire Flux Esports | 61c | 705.18$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.49 | 341 | 40.8%139 W · 202 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Arch | 39c | 640.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.15 | 526 | 36.5%192 W · 334 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e83…00aabacked Fire Flux Esports | 58c | 301.97$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 171 | 42.1%72 W · 99 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…47bcbacked Arch | 14c | 256.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8248…c0b2backed Arch | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 207 | 50.7%105 W · 102 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Fire Flux Esports | 76c | 182.47$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Arch | 39c | 176.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb6…d406backed Fire Flux Esports | 46c | 168.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Fire Flux Esports | 58c | 131.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 380 | 37.4%142 W · 238 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Fire Flux Esports | 61c | 122.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Arch | 56c | 119.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…0a49backed Arch | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Arch | 38c | 99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Arch | 51c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Fire Flux Esports | 62c | 94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fire Flux Esports | 69c | 84.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked Arch | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 351 | 31.1%109 W · 242 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Arch | 45c | 60.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Arch | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…1e43backed Fire Flux Esports | 62c | 56.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Fire Flux Esports | 51c | 51.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…9335backed Fire Flux Esports | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 131 | 27.5%36 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arch | 22c | 47.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Fire Flux Esports | 58c | 40.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9558…9579backed Fire Flux Esports | 65c | 39.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Fire Flux Esports | 39c | 38.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 265 | 46.8%124 W · 141 L | -18.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Arch | 39c | 34.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee65…5067backed Arch | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbac…ecc4backed Arch | 50c | 23.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 188 | 41.5%78 W · 110 L | -19.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Fire Flux Esports | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Fire Flux Esports | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c4…9991backed Fire Flux Esports | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.