College Football · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec585743ac628b86606247ae5ecc501fe56fb0a947c5511f7400169034baba20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auburnof Arkansas, Auburn
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cc0…d2d0backed Auburn | 50c | 89,064$44,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,532 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…1176backed Auburn | 50c | 53,955$26,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,977.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Auburn | 50c | 28,169$13,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,200.52 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…80c8backed Arkansas | 50c | 26,242$13,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,121 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…71edbacked Arkansas | 50c | 23,221$11,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,610.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821a…d2bbbacked Arkansas | 50c | 17,545$8,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,772.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fd…1409backed Arkansas | 50c | 12,327$6,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,163.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf297…ffa1backed Arkansas | 50c | 11,176$5,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,588 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…3bedbacked Arkansas | 50c | 8,853$4,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,426.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…fa60backed Arkansas | 50c | 8,339$4,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,169.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Arkansas | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas | 50c | 7,322$3,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,691 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…61f6backed Arkansas | 50c | 5,953$2,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,976.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49a…066cbacked Arkansas | 50c | 5,322$2,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,661 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Arkansas | 50c | 5,137$2,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565.58 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Arkansas | 51c | 5,000$2,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,570 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ee…2a7dbacked Arkansas | 50c | 4,662$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…2e51backed Arkansas | 50c | 4,066$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7016…9c7ebacked Arkansas | 50c | 3,749$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f90…6469backed Arkansas | 50c | 2,949$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92c…2e48backed Arkansas | 50c | 2,778$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…5fb6backed Arkansas | 50c | 1,359$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…0c17backed Arkansas | 50c | 1,111$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Arkansas | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…90edbacked Arkansas | 50c | 950$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa694…7acfbacked Arkansas | 50c | 642$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f1…ef5dbacked Arkansas | 50c | 531$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Arkansas | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Arkansas | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…bd51backed Arkansas | 50c | 395$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Arkansas | 50c | 320$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…6927backed Arkansas | 50c | 316$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x408d…2bccbacked Arkansas | 50c | 283$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5094…a296backed Arkansas | 50c | 245$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Arkansas | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Auburn | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Arkansas | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Arkansas | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Arkansas | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Arkansas | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Auburn | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Auburn | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Arkansas | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Auburn | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8895…aa9cbacked Auburn | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…e67bbacked Arkansas | 51c | 27.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Auburn | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas (-2.5)this page
- Auburn vs. ArkansasAuburn won
- Auburn vs. Arkansas: O/U 55.5Over won
- O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: Arkansas (-3.5)Auburn won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.