CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec849a5fe6f56580c589df6317b56c17774080fd582aa9b3ecf3b312eaedb444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fortressof Fortress, AaB Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Fortress | 52c | 966.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.96 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked AaB Bulls | 55c | 949.18$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.05 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa487…9439backed AaB Bulls | 75c | 607.6$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Fortress | 56c | 503.54$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.26 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Fortress | 25c | 473.89$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.13 | 758 | 33.4%253 W · 505 L | -48.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked AaB Bulls | 45c | 465$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.64 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Fortress | 45c | 372.95$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.12 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Fortress | 72c | 331.28$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked AaB Bulls | 72c | 294.56$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.03 | 341 | 40.8%139 W · 202 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed AaB Bulls | 55c | 280$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Fortress | 45c | 219.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.98 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked AaB Bulls | 33c | 219.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed AaB Bulls | 42c | 187.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…d97cbacked Fortress | 51c | 185.91$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 587 | 45.5%267 W · 320 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Fortress | 32c | 181.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.74 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…0105backed AaB Bulls | 71c | 174.74$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.08 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked Fortress | 29c | 173$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.83 | 351 | 31.1%109 W · 242 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Fortress | 51c | 169$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…dc29backed Fortress | 73c | 165$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 486 | 35.4%172 W · 314 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed AaB Bulls | 47c | 143.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed AaB Bulls | 66c | 140.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked AaB Bulls | 37c | 135.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed AaB Bulls | 55c | 135.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 276 | 47.1%130 W · 146 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Fortress | 53c | 117.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed AaB Bulls | 44c | 101.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 404 | 49.8%201 W · 203 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Fortress | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Fortress | 31c | 79.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…4176backed AaB Bulls | 69c | 78.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…c94abacked Fortress | 39c | 75.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Fortress | 48c | 73.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked AaB Bulls | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 100 | 29%29 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…ea33backed Fortress | 75c | 64.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed AaB Bulls | 41c | 58.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Fortress | 24c | 54.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa617…63fcbacked AaB Bulls | 33c | 48.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked AaB Bulls | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed AaB Bulls | 46c | 43.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked AaB Bulls | 43c | 42.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Fortress | 38c | 37.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked AaB Bulls | 58c | 37.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked AaB Bulls | 49c | 30.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked AaB Bulls | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 655 | 48.9%320 W · 335 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…7cd0backed AaB Bulls | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabe1…af91backed Fortress | 73c | 22.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Fortress | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Fortress | 77c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 1 WinnerFortress won
- Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 WinnerFortress won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.