Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec8af023bdf8571fbef376828dd02812123f4f04cc197fea17f5c343f91449d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 29c | 3,525$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.27 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 32c | 1,833$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.41 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 70c | 1,602$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.65 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 72c | 1,370$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.88 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed No | 30c | 1,106$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.31 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 70c | 1,087$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.6 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Yes | 70c | 857.14$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Yes | 71c | 789.58$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.98 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 28c | 558.38$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.35 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 69c | 474.98$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 71c | 457.44$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.36 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed No | 30c | 447.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.28 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 71c | 185$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 68c | 182.32$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Yes | 71c | 140.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 68c | 126.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…0bbdbacked Yes | 71c | 113.91$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed No | 29c | 90.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Yes | 72c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefe3…2625backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 28c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 29c | 49.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yes | 70c | 49.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 28c | 46.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 72c | 42.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd840…1ec6backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 36.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Yes | 72c | 24.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 72c | 21.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…c62abacked Yes | 71c | 17.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d1…f516backed Yes | 72c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…6954backed Yes | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.