Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcee1472853f79bb441e7e1e4304cb9ad72bf53686efe2dedcc8e3c0f9803cd77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 53c | 7,076$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,325.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 48c | 7,013$3,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,366.24 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 4,573$2,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,195.16 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 47c | 2,399$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.69 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 1,925$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.51 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 47c | 1,167$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.63 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 48c | 675.23$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.11 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 47c | 550$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.5 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 49c | 515.87$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.25 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 50c | 481.54$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.54 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 48c | 414.67$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.41 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 79c | 339$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 53c | 327.52$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.79 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 47c | 311.94$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.84 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked Over | 51c | 300.06$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 48c | 290.6$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.11 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 24c | 290.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 54c | 279.65$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 51c | 244.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 190.15$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 129$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…e2c2backed Under | 52c | 128.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 11c | 117$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 56c | 114.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 51c | 97.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 48c | 95.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Under | 20c | 76.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Under | 52c | 75.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 51c | 58.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Over | 52c | 43.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 53c | 40.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 48c | 33.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 76c | 26.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b31…b2a3backed Over | 50c | 21.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 54c | 20.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.