Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8814a9b1a976cdaadcad2be28c2b0559fc689ae78bc4338892b46d6eb30d8781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 43c | 6,538$2,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,752.8 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 48c | 3,086$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.29 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 58c | 1,194$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.34 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 34c | 468.87$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.19 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 51c | 388.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 53c | 359.57$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 76c | 300$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.36 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 50c | 275.46$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 30c | 266.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 38c | 246.28$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.09 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 22c | 204.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.54 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…4186backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 71c | 175.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 70c | 149.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 44c | 135.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c4…fe0abacked Over | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…fa38backed Under | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 96.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 29c | 89.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 87.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 46c | 59.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 46c | 59.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Over | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 55c | 54.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 67c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 71c | 45.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b31…b2a3backed Over | 30c | 44.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 66c | 43.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 66c | 42.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 71c | 37.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 76c | 36.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked Under | 71c | 35.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 71c | 34.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…d590backed Over | 74c | 31.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 67c | 27.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 69c | 26.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 68c | 21.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Over | 65c | 20.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…7188backed Over | 65c | 20.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 71c | 20.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Over | 71c | 19.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Over | 75c | 16.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 75c | 13.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.