Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecbd00145cc96c57870cf019d94b8628537831fafba618566db3a23929bf7d61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0934…ef90backed No | 12c | 675$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 28c | 330.63$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.99 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 25c | 291.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed No | 17c | 245.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 159.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 134.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 71c | 95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 94.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 53c | 79.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 72c | 75.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…9c82backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 56c | 61.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…2551backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 71c | 48.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 53c | 43.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a64…b0eabacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 26.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 24.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 72c | 24.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 74c | 21.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 59c | 19.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03f…279abacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.