Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xece6b7e0fb2d08aaf24f98e5dafff9499954ceacaa8ab00809f2252873d6091e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 2,313$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 868.12$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 732.48$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 638.64$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 22c | 588.2$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.2 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 32c | 360.41$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.66 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 359.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 11c | 268.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 185.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 182.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 177.18$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 142.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 62c | 142$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 16c | 137.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 134.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 17c | 118.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.06 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 113$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…ac41backed Yes | 38c | 111.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 15c | 110.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 69c | 109.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 17c | 107.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 78.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 40c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 39c | 70.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 17c | 68.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 76c | 58.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 57.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 58c | 51.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 30c | 49.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 29c | 48.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 75c | 44.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 26c | 43.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 37.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 62c | 34.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked No | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 30.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 79c | 26.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 65c | 21.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 20.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…1780backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…fdc8backed Yes | 74c | 17.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…1258backed No | 79c | 15.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.