Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c83af919f9c982893d9857f77a2ce4a7922960afcdb9790d4638a2152c8fb1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 29c | 679.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 593.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 37c | 532.64$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.13 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 437.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 429.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 305.94$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 24c | 275.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 257.87$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 17c | 245.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 5c | 235.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 193.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 185.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 176.74$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 71c | 159.54$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 157.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 26c | 154.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 31c | 150.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 120.45$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 116.36$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 109.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed Yes | 33c | 85.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 72c | 82.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 77.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 14c | 77.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 23c | 68.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 31c | 66.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 30c | 61.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 63c | 59.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 57.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 30c | 56.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 74c | 55.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 55.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 34c | 43.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 38.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 64c | 37.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 37.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked No | 76c | 34.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 33.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 69c | 32.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 79c | 25.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 23.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 65c | 15.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…1258backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.