TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,338
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,212

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,338 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c1,489$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes20c1,112$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.128,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes32c619.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes37c481.24$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3815527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes38c400$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9946733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No69c336.08$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.242,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b38…ac41backed Yes25c334.43$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.23333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No72c324.02$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.652,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No76c291.67$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.712,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c240$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.845,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No65c225.23$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.424,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No78c220.66$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.881,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes33c207.16$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7415040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes22c201.88$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6354335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes13c181.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.34,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No75c165.49$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes24c149.1$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8184124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c145.16$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.243,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No52c142$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.939956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No74c128.68$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.113,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No72c124.7$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.943,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No63c122.69$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.944,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No64c117.91$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8129351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes32c116.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0926533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No70c109.07$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6579947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes27c106.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.853,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes21c103.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7957150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c102.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.239,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7581…2ca4backed Yes40c100.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020833.2%69 W · 139 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2963255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes40c91.81$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.395,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c87.49$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No62c83.16$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.681558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes29c80.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3727744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5710…b854backed Yes37c78.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.022536%9 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No56c77.21$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No73c72.5$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.571,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No74c70$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.324,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Yes33c60.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.996651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.73,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No80c58.8$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8421370.9%151 W · 62 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No74c57.5$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.853,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No65c57.35$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.094,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes43c55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No70c53.91$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0960550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes21c53.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.177,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes21c52.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.941,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No76c52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4843959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked No78c51.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.366966.7%46 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No71c49.92$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5723666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No74c47.8$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.434,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3541…6468backed Yes37c40.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.525877.5%200 W · 58 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes29c39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.141,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No72c38.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.814,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.723,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No73c37.92$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3216566.1%109 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No74c37.59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.664,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No65c37.52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.11,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe3b…d0a9backed No78c35.65$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.742378.3%18 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick76cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No48c35.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3441752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes43c33.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.334151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No70c32.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.715369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes31c32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes36c30.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9334846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.642366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No70c28.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.441,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No79c27.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.711,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No56c26.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.561,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No72c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522064.5%142 W · 78 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c23.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.752,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes47c23.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.895736.8%21 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No72c22.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3150261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bc…7714backed No68c20.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.491145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick64cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No64c20.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1751156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.692761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x839e…8a61backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59159.3%54 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xced6…2dc1backed No66c17.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0928068.6%192 W · 88 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No74c17.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5676059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No62c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4825560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked No68c16.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1728035.4%99 W · 181 L-69.3wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight25-0.23 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No74c16.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1991861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed No67c15.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2117020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9b62…042fbacked No74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8511859.3%70 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9537465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ed0…1258backed No68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81070%7 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No77c14.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.451,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.62,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.515534.8%54 W · 101 L+0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.