Europa Conference League · resolved market
Hammarby Fotboll vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecf8266dd5167d469f42c802b5cfc037c264e189b81e729b3a8b9da6326d46f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 2,961$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.64 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 21c | 2,702$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.32 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…3ca8backed Under | 54c | 1,843$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.84 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 1,448$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.36 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 53c | 740.98$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 44c | 583.4$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.28 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 54c | 310.39$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.61 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 282.1$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 205.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 45c | 145.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 45c | 99.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 31c | 73.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…55f7backed Over | 54c | 55.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 54c | 52.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…1ca6backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 53c | 25.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 45c | 24.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 23.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 46c | 23.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 70c | 22.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hammarby Fotboll vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 2.5this page
- Hammarby Fotboll vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Hammarby Fotboll vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hammarby Fotboll vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Hammarby Fotboll vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 0.5Over won
- Hammarby Fotboll vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 1.5Under won
- Hammarby Fotboll vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hammarby Fotboll vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 4.5Under won
- Hammarby Fotboll vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 5.5Under won
- Hammarby Fotboll vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: Team to AdvanceRKS Raków Częstochowa won
- Spread: Hammarby Fotboll (-1.5)RKS Raków Częstochowa won
- Spread: Hammarby Fotboll (-2.5)RKS Raków Częstochowa won
- Spread: RKS Raków Częstochowa (-1.5)Hammarby Fotboll won
- Spread: RKS Raków Częstochowa (-2.5)Hammarby Fotboll won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.