Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed06fcaa9b46f9b68fe0dfebc8a84d9c8bf37136a514d8846fa7ce54a56a048a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,238 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb13c…4af2backed No | 0c | 24,181$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…a061backed No | 0c | 15,971$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…6351backed No | 1c | 11,500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca3…93eabacked No | 0c | 6,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…e3e5backed No | 1c | 6,232$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…b9a3backed No | 0c | 5,600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 760.64$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 2c | 666.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 66c | 430.8$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.22 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 8c | 356.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.56 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 336.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 17c | 333.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 299.73$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 12c | 279.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.98 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 9c | 277.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.77 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 21c | 274.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.35 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 17c | 265.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.28 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 20c | 234.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.91 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 226.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 203.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.91 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 21c | 197.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.9 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 78c | 197.16$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.52 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 14c | 179.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.93 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 174.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.94 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 24c | 148.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 116$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.58 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 77c | 112.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 30c | 100.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 99.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 56c | 95.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 37c | 77.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked Yes | 21c | 72.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 67.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked No | 75c | 62.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 44c | 36.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 43c | 34.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf466…088fbacked No | 69c | 29.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 72c | 18.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…bf81backed Yes | 70c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.