Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6605bf477c767702a08a06c5d858d6f17f7767385de5f473b32aafd43b8cf30e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,316 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,077$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…fa63backed No | 54c | 1,900$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8014…b90abacked Yes | 46c | 1,900$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaec…2694backed Yes | 1c | 1,254$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb89…9fdfbacked No | 79c | 1,005$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 19c | 497.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.68 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 461$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 359.95$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.16 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 337.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.75 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 275$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 33c | 266.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 258.52$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 240.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.55 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 26c | 222.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.52 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed No | 78c | 221.94$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 210.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 68c | 200.25$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.55 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…92edbacked Yes | 74c | 197.77$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.39 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 29c | 191.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 11c | 186.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.37 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…907dbacked Yes | 23c | 179.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 18c | 169.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.21 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 158.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 44c | 149.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 79c | 141.36$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 132.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 13c | 120.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 116$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 106$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 13c | 95.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 39c | 88.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 24c | 84.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 78.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 64c | 75.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 16c | 71.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 28c | 64.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 61.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 34c | 58.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked No | 33c | 50.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 49c | 44.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed No | 59c | 40.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…aa44backed Yes | 59c | 34.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3421…ed1fbacked No | 59c | 34.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 41c | 34.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 52c | 32.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…c327backed Yes | 61c | 32.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 73c | 31.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 66c | 30.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 50c | 29.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 60c | 24.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc56…b1b7backed Yes | 50c | 23.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2959…d19cbacked No | 60c | 23.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f34…e59ebacked Yes | 47c | 21.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf3…3c08backed Yes | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…8efebacked Yes | 71c | 17.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.