World Politics · resolved market
Will Zoran Stevanović be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed0ba2dbbf162ede382f5b3176c9278a4cb89c113ba9e0228be365820d297ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10c…0645backed Yes | 4c | 20,678$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…b980backed Yes | 2c | 11,526$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…51dbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…1e07backed Yes | 1c | 5,034$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6b…3bd4backed Yes | 0c | 5,017$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…64ddbacked Yes | 1c | 3,917$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,466$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,195$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e73…8f73backed Yes | 10c | 1,450$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…919ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,337$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…fb7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…5d45backed Yes | 7c | 588.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x773b…0c84backed Yes | 5c | 505.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…80bdbacked Yes | 5c | 409.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zoran Stevanović be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?this page
- Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?No won
- Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?Yes won
- Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?No won
- Will Luka Mesec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?No won
- Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?No won
- Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?No won
- Will Vladimir Prebilič be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.