TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$275,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,023

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 249 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6b…3bd4backed Yes2c20,715$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.19616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-72.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2234…8d2ebacked Yes8c17,318$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c22…0960backed Yes1c12,471$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.7170%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes5c4,336$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.1515932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x675c…9945backed Yes7c3,438$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes12c3,061$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.944766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes11c2,271$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes5c2,185$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8128430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes4c2,056$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.691947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd01a…4305backed Yes6c1,743$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0c…1c8bbacked Yes14c1,700$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Yes7c1,642$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0380%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes7c1,396$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2117037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d61…f6febacked Yes6c1,353$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.14922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-71.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes7c1,213$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.731520%3 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd368…d311backed Yes14c1,116$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes3c1,075$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.171020%2 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb3…6ef2backed Yes19c1,057$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2c…e502backed Yes10c1,022$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8567…d40ebacked Yes8c966.79$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+77.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x326b…33ebbacked Yes2c917.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c51…181cbacked Yes9c758.69$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.04425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b1…4bafbacked Yes8c750$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes5c700.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5554934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x98fe…ef7cbacked Yes15c695.14$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72fb…f5d4backed Yes21c682.43$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5aa…ed92backed Yes13c665$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.01425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3875…6d9ebacked Yes15c660.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be3…6153backed Yes16c660$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a3ccbacked Yes12c639$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bc…14e0backed Yes11c626$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2fc…955cbacked Yes8c612$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7127…0fe2backed Yes6c609.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd032…e636backed Yes15c566$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes20c553.01$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.093718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa071…c452backed Yes8c549.75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes4c544.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.614511.1%5 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…04cbbacked Yes14c540$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0119…8701backed Yes17c535$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x500c…c70dbacked Yes14c530.94$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497f…0120backed Yes11c530$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74c4…0548backed Yes8c529.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1d5…0735backed Yes10c519$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ddc…74d8backed Yes19c510.27$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0868…f229backed Yes18c508$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x872c…40e0backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…65d9backed Yes10c499$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+235.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc690…2c0ebacked Yes15c495$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb64…0d56backed Yes7c487$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6908…78bdbacked Yes8c473$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes7c472.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.269123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd409…4cdebacked Yes10c468$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.86425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe089…e7bbbacked Yes18c461$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x110d…e154backed Yes6c459$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb96b…aeb1backed Yes11c436$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x700f…d4e1backed Yes12c430.47$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.51540%6 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2722…5b80backed Yes6c430$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-64.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x681e…b12bbacked Yes11c426$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb8…5a80backed Yes17c417.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74f0…08e5backed Yes12c413$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd876…d279backed Yes4c410.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x411d…919ebacked Yes10c409.01$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.41520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0096…8791backed Yes7c400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb821…a2ecbacked Yes7c397$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c394.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.961,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x263b…c51fbacked Yes21c393.98$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b35…b5aabacked Yes18c391$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc8…974bbacked Yes6c390.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.57922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x465a…f237backed Yes7c389$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd2…c2a2backed Yes6c377$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff53…6963backed Yes7c375$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6890…de45backed Yes10c363$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa41a…400ebacked Yes6c354$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+437.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eec…507cbacked Yes8c353$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39ed…b5debacked Yes18c342.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f32…efb4backed Yes14c342$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7617…9e8dbacked Yes14c342$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.85560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+168.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes6c335.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2210845.4%49 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c91…f766backed Yes8c331$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e1…3616backed Yes6c330$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0206…2757backed Yes6c328$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x058c…9c63backed Yes15c325.87$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe914…19cfbacked Yes10c325$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.15425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5597…ef37backed Yes10c325$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+93.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b9…b56dbacked Yes17c325$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…ac6cbacked Yes17c325$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab19…76fdbacked Yes13c320.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a06…921abacked Yes12c313.38$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d4c…06fcbacked Yes10c313$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe81d…53fabacked Yes10c313$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes9c306.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.385313.2%7 W · 46 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-80.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa41b…0fa6backed Yes15c303.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x966e…02febacked Yes15c303$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b0…353abacked Yes11c300$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa5…5a0abacked Yes11c300$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29d0…cb58backed Yes11c300$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a2…36d4backed Yes6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e8d…88abbacked Yes10c300$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.