Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Djokovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed12d7a1f11332532745fd7826f59f8b9390e3fba13d93007b1094ed2cfab46e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Djokovicof Fonseca, Djokovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Djokovic | 62c | 688.5$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.74 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Djokovic | 64c | 468.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.83 | 242 | 59.9%145 W · 97 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked Fonseca | 19c | 347.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Fonseca | 38c | 342.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…f975backed Fonseca | 38c | 328.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…a84abacked Djokovic | 60c | 300$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…8e52backed Fonseca | 17c | 287.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed Fonseca | 17c | 286.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…fb0fbacked Fonseca | 18c | 175.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…5e62backed Fonseca | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 239 | 32.6%78 W · 161 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fonseca | 10c | 111.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Fonseca | 27c | 107.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Fonseca | 37c | 104.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…804cbacked Fonseca | 37c | 103.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Fonseca | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Fonseca | 36c | 78.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 580 | 48.4%281 W · 299 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Fonseca | 21c | 66.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Djokovic | 63c | 63.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…7d68backed Fonseca | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Djokovic | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Fonseca | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Djokovic | 59c | 31.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…a58fbacked Djokovic | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Djokovicthis page
- Fonseca vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak DjokovicJoao Fonseca won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)Fonseca won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Fonseca (+2.5)Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.